Research · Capital Markets

Capital reveals where power expects to compound

How allocation, investment cycles, rates, liquidity, and fiscal capacity move, and what they signal about where advantage is forming.

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The Thesis

Markets are institutional evidence

Prices, flows, and balance sheets encode expectations about where capability will concentrate. Read carefully, capital markets are a forward map of strategic position.

The Power Curve studies allocation under constraint: how fiscal capacity, rates, and liquidity shape what gets built, and what gets starved.

  • Where capital is rotating
  • How rates reprice risk
  • Fiscal capacity and its limits
  • Who funds the build-out

Key Questions

What we study

  • Where is capital rotating, and what does it expect to compound?
  • How are rates and liquidity repricing strategic risk?
  • What are the limits of fiscal capacity across major economies?
  • Who is funding the industrial and compute build-out, and on what terms?

Selected Research

Publications on capital markets

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Research Streams

Six domains for understanding power, capability, and structural advantage.

Together, they provide a framework for understanding how capability is built, transformed, and sustained.

01

Strategic Competition

How states, firms, and institutions compete through technology, industrial capacity, alliances, statecraft, and economic leverage.

Explore 02

Advanced Technology

AI, compute, frontier infrastructure, data, productivity, and the systems that convert invention into capability.

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Capital & Markets

Capital allocation, investment cycles, fiscal capacity, financial systems, rates, risk, and markets.

Explore 04

Institutions

State capacity, governance, legitimacy, regulation, coordination, trust, and execution.

Explore 05

Cities & Infrastructure

Urban systems, energy, logistics, housing, resilience, and the physical geography of growth.

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Decisions Under Uncertainty

Frameworks for strategy, judgment, resource allocation, and institutional choice when information remains incomplete.

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