Research · Risk & Resilience

Disruption amplifies risk—but rewards resilience

We study how leaders navigate risk and build resilience in complex, challenging, and fast-moving environments.

Read the latest All research domains

The Thesis

Resilience is built before it is needed

The decisive choices are made with incomplete evidence, under time pressure, before outcomes are knowable. How leaders frame uncertainty determines what they can withstand.

The Power Curve studies judgment under uncertainty: how to weigh scenarios, price tail risk, and build the slack that turns shocks into survivable events.

  • Where fragility concentrates
  • How tail risk is priced
  • Decisions under pressure
  • Where resilience pays

Key Questions

What we study

  • Where is fragility concentrating across systems and balance sheets?
  • How should leaders price low-probability, high-consequence risk?
  • What separates good decisions from good outcomes under uncertainty?
  • Where does investment in resilience actually pay off?

Selected Research

Publications on risk & resilience

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Regime Change, Quietly

Kevin Warsh was installed to cut interest rates, but his first month at the Federal Reserve signaled something larger, and more disciplined.

Jun 24, 2026 · 9 min read

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AI for Enterprise

Anthropic and OpenAI announce joint ventures with leading investors

May 5, 2026 · 1 min read

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Research Streams

Six domains for understanding power, capability, and structural advantage.

Together, they provide a framework for understanding how capability is built, transformed, and sustained.

01

Strategic Competition

How states, firms, and institutions compete through technology, industrial capacity, alliances, statecraft, and economic leverage.

Explore 02

Advanced Technology

AI, compute, frontier infrastructure, data, productivity, and the systems that convert invention into capability.

Explore 03

Capital & Markets

Capital allocation, investment cycles, fiscal capacity, financial systems, rates, risk, and markets.

Explore 04

Institutions

State capacity, governance, legitimacy, regulation, coordination, trust, and execution.

Explore 05

Cities & Infrastructure

Urban systems, energy, logistics, housing, resilience, and the physical geography of growth.

Explore 06

Decisions Under Uncertainty

Frameworks for strategy, judgment, resource allocation, and institutional choice when information remains incomplete.

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